Analysis of the 2014 World Cup

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FIFA WC 14

On Friday, December 6th, the entire world awoke with childlike anticipation, mentally preparing themselves for the results of the 2014 World Cup draw. In short, it was incredibly unkind to the U.S. My feelings about our group can be expressed by this Ron Swanson GIF:

swansonchair

To get a better sense of which groups are the toughest in 2014, I first calculated averages within each group based on FIFA world rankings. After struggling through basic math for roughly an hour, I found a chart online showing the same thing (only more organized and aesthetically-pleasing). Here it is (via Guardian U.K.):

wc groups

Group A: The Brazilians, with their immense talent and home field advantage, should advance easily. Supporters will expect to see Brazil’s characteristic trifecta of pace, ball control, and relentless attack in 2014. But the Brazilian defense shouldn’t be overlooked. Pound-for-pound, they have one of the most experienced and talented back lines in the world. Dani Alves, Thiago Silva, David Luiz, and Marcelo are all starting players on top clubs in their respective leagues. The midfield has young talent in Lucas, Oscar, and Ramires. As well as veterans, like Kaka and Ronaldinho. Rising star Neymar won MVP at the Confederations Cup this summer, where Brazil defeated Spain 3-0 in the final. They’ve already proven they can capitalize on home field advantage. And they’ve already proven they can beat the best team in the world.

Croatia, Mexico, and Cameroon, are all average. However, Croatia and Mexico are likely more favored. The Cameroon squad failed to even qualify for the 2013 African Cup, which doesn’t bode well for their prospects in the World Cup. Likely, Croatia and Mexico will face a dogfight to advance.

Top 2: Brazil/Croatia

Group B: Spain, #1 in the world and defending World Cup champions, are the easy favorite in Group B. Like Germany, the Spanish squad boasts incredible depth, with few (if any) weaknesses. Their defense is slower but arguably tougher and more experienced than Brazil’s. Spain’s midfield, however, is where their power lies. The Spanish squad boasts an unrivaled surplus of world class talent in the middle of the field. Veterans Xavi and Iniesta have both frequented the shortlist for FIFA Player of the Year as of lately:

Fifa ballon d'or

There’s also Juan Mata, David Silva, Cesc Fabregas, Jesus Navas, Santi Cazorla, and Isco (i.e. ridiculous). Forward David Villa won the Silver Boot (2nd most goals) in 2010. He’ll be returning in 2014. Also returning are the 6 players named to the all-tournament team in 2010 (the 11 best players of the competition). 6 of the 11 were Spanish. All are returning to Rio.

The Chilean squad has one of the toughest center midfielders in the world with Arturo Vidal. Chile advanced to the knockout round in 2010 and could repeat their efforts if they can at least defeat the Netherlands. But that’s a big “if”. The Dutch were World Cup finalists in 2010 and boast a threatening attack with veteran forwards Robin Van Persie and Arjen Robben. And of course, there’s Wesley Sneijder, who played stellar in South Africa. In 2010, Sneijder won the Bronze Boot (3rd most goals) and was awarded the Silver Ball (2nd best player overall) and, deservedly, was named to the all-tournament team. That was 4 years ago, however. A scrappy Chilean squad could easily surprise the Dutch in 2014.

Top 2: Spain/Netherlands

Group C: This is one of those groups where any two teams could possibly advance. But Columbia is the clear frontrunner with a brutal attack in Monaco teammates Falcao and James Rodriguez (who are already accustomed to playing with one another in club football). This should serve as an advantage come 2014. Young talents like Luis Muriel and Victor Ibarbo further strengthen Columbia’s attack. In 2012, FIFA awarded Columbia the “Best Mover of the Year” award (the team who progresses farthest in the FIFA world rankings). The 2014 squad will be keen to continue their form.

Greece, Ivory Coast, and Japan, seem evenly matched. Greece always proves to be a wildcard. In 2004, they shocked Europe by winning the UEFA Cup. Yet, they failed to make it past the group stage in the 2010 World Cup. Ivory Coast also has the potential to surprise. They boast a strong roster with Yaya Toure controlling the midfield and captain Didier Drogba upfront. Rio will likely be Drogba’s last World Cup appearance. If the team rallies around his goal-scoring ability, Cote d’Ivoire have a good chance of continuing to the knockout round. Japan advanced in 2010 but showed lackluster results recently in the Confederations Cup, losing all three matches in the group stage.

Top 2: Columbia/Ivory Coast

Group D: This group highlights an interesting phenomenon within the psyche of World Cup fans. If you’re American (or anyone else in the world besides a Brit) you agree that Group G is obviously the “group of death”. However, if you’re English, you tend to disagree. I partially sympathize with them. Group D will certainly be difficult. But I would trade Ghana for Costa Rica any day of the week.

The average world ranking of Group D is 14 overall. The next toughest is Group C with an average of 20. There’s definitely a wide gap. Both Italy and Uruguay are top 10 in the world and will prove to be very tough opponents for England. The Italian squad were finalists in the 2012 Euro Cup and advanced to the semi-finals of the Confederations Cup this summer, only losing to Spain in penalty kicks. They’re clear favorites, with good results in recent competition and a squad with a lot of experience.

Uruguay, on the other hand, is a top squad hiding under the radar. If you don’t closely follow the sport of football, Uruguay is a team that can be easily dismissed. Because, when you think of elite South American football, most people think Argentina and Brazil. But to discount this team would be foolish, for two reasons. First, Uruguay were nearly finalists in the 2010 World Cup, losing a close match to the Netherlands 3-2 in the semi-finals. They were also semi-finalists in the 2013 Confederations Cup. Second, Uruguay arguably has the strongest striking duo in the world, aside from Argentina. Luiz Suarez and Edison Cavani will be a nightmare for defenders.

England’s biggest opponent, however, is England. They have a lot talent, albeit young talent (Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley, Danny Welbeck, Oxlade-Chamberlain). The veteran players are world class but mostly past their prime. Rooney is only 28 but always proves to be unpredictable. Gerrard and Lampard are both mid-30s and will likely be appearing in their last World Cup in 2014. Joe Hart, at least, will be reliable in goal. We shouldn’t expect the same antics we saw from England goalkeeper Robert Green in the group stage against the U.S. in 2010. Although, as an American, I will always be grateful for this epic fail:

RG gif

My favorite club team in the world is Everton, so I’m predisposed to liking the England squad. I honestly want to see them win. But something is telling me they face an early exit in 2014. In South Africa, the U.S. and England both narrowly advanced to the knockout stage. I have a sneaking suspicion that, once again, we both are destined to the same fate. This time, in the form of defeat. That being said, with England’s abundance of youth prospects, they should find themselves back in the top 10 come 2018.

Top 2: Italy/Uruguay

Group E: Switzerland is the most surprising squad in the top 10, with scarce big name talent. Granit Xhaka (21) and Xherdan Shaqiri (22) are exciting youth prospects. The Swiss will rely on them in 2014. Switzerland went undefeated over 10 games in the World Cup qualifying round (7-3-0). Then again, the toughest team in their group was Slovenia (#29 in the world). The Swiss are probably the weakest top 10 team in the world. However, in a group like the one they find themselves, expect to see them advance.

Normally, France would be favorites in Group E. But lately, the French national team is anything but normal. Stunningly, they barely qualified for this year’s World Cup. They find themselves uncharacteristically outside the top 10 (#19 in the world). And let’s not forget about the drama that unfolded at the 2010 World Cup, when an argument between captain Patrice Evra and an assistant coach led to a team revolt.

The French have the personnel to go far. But their still the French. Like England, France is their own worst enemy. Thanks to an easy group, they’ll likely advance. But the sweet 16 might be as far as they go.

Top 2: Switzerland/France

Group F: Argentina will undoubtedly have the easiest path to the knockout round (as if they needed it). Lionel Messi (4-time back-to-back FIFA World Player of the Year) shares the attack with Sergio Aguero (together, two of the top 10 best strikers in the world). Mascherano and Di Maria add depth in the midfield. Wingers Lavezzi and Palacio further bolster an intimidating attack. Argentina’s defense is nothing to write home about. But they clearly compensate for it. If Messi and Aguero get hot, the Argentines could win the cup.

First-timers Bosnia and Herzegovina will be looking to make a name for themselves on the international stage. They’re the second highest ranked team in the group but it doesn’t necessarily make them favorites to advance. #36 in the world Nigeria won the 2013 African Cup. This shouldn’t count for nothing. It’s entirely possible for the African champions to knockout higher-ranked Bosnia/Herzegovina. Iran, on the other hand, will be lucky to earn a single point in this group.

Top 2: Argentina/Nigeria

Group G: If you’re familiar with the World Cup then you’re probably familiar with the term “group of death”. If you’re unfamiliar, then get familiar with Group G. In 2014, the U.S. will face the toughest group in the tournament. Germany (#2 in the world) is an absolute powerhouse and favorites to win it all. I could name their top players but I would have to name their entire starting 11. Germany s good. Period. But let’s not forget about Portugal (#5 in the world) and Christiano Ronaldo. Love him or hate him (hate him), he’s one of the best players in the world. In 2013, Portugal were the biggest “movers” within the FIFA top 20 (shifting nine places within the rankings from #14 to #5).

Last but not least, in some cruel twist of fate, the U.S. will be playing Ghana. F***ing Ghana. If you watched the 2010 World Cup, you understand why Americans are apprehensive. The U.S. were eliminated by Ghana during the knockout round in a heartbreaking loss in extra time. Now, a rematch is inevitable, alongside the likes of Germany and Portugal. Group G is unquestionably the “group of death”. Alas, if the U.S. want to be taken seriously in the eyes of international football, this is their chance. Lucky for us, the Americans have a secret weapon…

Aston Villa v Everton - Premier League

TIM HOWARD’S BEARD

Top 2: Germany/Portugal

Group H: Expect the Belgians to sweep the group stage. Aside from Uruguay, they’re the most underrated team in the tournament. Belgium will likely be top 5 in the world come 2018, with some of the best youth prospects in football. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is only 21 and already on his way to becoming world class. In the midfield, there’s Dembele, Fellaini, Witsel, Eden Hazard, and De Bruyne (with an average age of 24). Belgian’s attack is young and talented as well, with Mirallas, Lukaku, and Benteke (average age of 23). And let’s not forget about 17 year-old forward Zakaria Bakkali (rumored to be Belgium’s next wonder kid). In the back field is where Belgium’s maturity lies, with Vermaelen, Vertonghen, and Kompany on defense (still, all three are under 30).

If the Belgians play to their full potential, they have the ability to compete for the cup. But their inexperience will likely cost them in the knockout round against veteran squads like Spain and Germany. Despite their talent, Belgium is unpredictable. They dropped 6 places in the FIFA world rankings prior to the draw, falling farther than any other team in the top 20.

Advancing to the knockout round alongside Belgium will likely be Russia, who finished top of their table in World Cup qualifications (above Portugal).

Top 2: Belgium/Russia

wc match by match

Analysis of the Oscar Pistorius Murder Case

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pistorius

Since the earliest days of my journalistic endeavors, I’ve been enthralled by true-crime stories. It started while growing up in the 90s. I remember, at a very young age, spending hours in front of the television, unknowingly indoctrinating myself by watching episodes of Rescue 9-1-1: a show featuring re-enactments of real-life emergencies, hauntingly narrated by William Shatner. Perhaps, through this, I became subconsciously desensitized to graphic details.

William Shatner in closeup

Shatner was my Mr. Rogers.

More recently, I fell in love with Capote’s In Cold Blood. Without a doubt, the most visceral piece of investigative journalism in American literature. It should come as no surprise that one of my personal heroes is Arthur Conan Doyle’s fictional detective: Sherlock Holmes.

Holmes was a master of “deductive logic”. It’s a form of reasoning that can be understood as “top-down”: moving from generalities to reach a logical conclusion. A famous Holmes quote summarizes this type of reasoning:

“When you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” -Arthur Conan Doyle

When I analyze a crime, I attempt deduction to reach a conclusion. My role is an observer. I have no personal stake in this case. I have no access to any information that the public does not. The following is simply an analysis of the available information on the Pistorius murder case and my opinion about what happened that night. My only bias lies in the fact that I believe his story is bullshit. I know that’s not the correct legal term but it’s my preliminary assessment.

pacino

 I’m outta order?! This whole courtroom is outta order!

Let’s start with the facts. In the early morning of February 14th, 2013, Oscar Pistorius shot and killed his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp at his estate in Pretoria, South Africa. He claims he thought she was an intruder and acted out of self-defense. On February 22nd, Pistorius was granted bail at $113,000 and will remain on strict house arrest until his trial in June.

You can view Pistorius’ defense affidavit (his version of events) here. It’s important to read for the purpose of context. However, I’ll restate the crucial pieces of testimony later in my analysis. In the meantime, here’s a diagram:

Spread template 2011

The key area of dispute is whether Pistorius shot Ms. Steenkamp accidentally. The prosecution and police argue that the athlete deliberately shot his girlfriend through a bathroom door at his home following an argument. Supporting this theory are a number of inconsistencies between Pistorius’ account and the lead detective’s initial testimony.

Detective Hilton Botha had been assigned the Pistorius case and already testified in court, until he was abruptly suspended from the investigation following the discovery of a re-opened case in which he was involved and charged with seven counts of attempted murder. South African news reports said at the time of the alleged shooting in 2011 that Botha and two officers were pursuing a man accused of murdering and dismembering a woman before dumping her body down a drain. They fired upon a taxi-bus carrying seven people, believing the perpetrator was on board (hence, the seven charges of attempted murder). The prosecutor of the case also alleged Botha and the officers were drunk at the time. Specific details have proven to be elusive. In the end, all three officers were acquitted and only recently was the case reopened.

hilton botha

Detective Hilton Botha

A police spokesman, Neville Malila, said police learned on [2/20/13] that the director of public prosecutions (DPP) had reinstated the charges against Botha. The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) said the charges against Botha were originally reinstated on February 4th (10 days before the crime). Why did it take so long for the police to be informed? Botha faces seven counts of attempted murder–a crime he was already acquitted of–yet it took over two weeks to inform him that the case was re-opened? Doesn’t that information merit a sense of urgency?

Malila claims the reinstatement of the case on February 4th is purely coincidence. I buy that. But the fact that the police weren’t informed about this until February 20th–less than a week after the murder and in the midst of Pistorius’ bail hearing–seems way too convenient.

On 2/19/13 the judge agreed–given the circumstances–that the charges against Pistorius were worthy of premeditation; considered a major victory for the prosecution. Yet, within 24 hours, the DPP informs the police about the re-opened case against Botha and has him suspended from the investigation. Botha was subsequently eviscerated by the defense during cross-examination (retracting half of his original statements). Still, I find it hard to believe that Pistorius’ attorney, Barry Roux, wasn’t involved in pressuring the DPP into pressuring police. Especially given his questionable background:

Roux once represented Lieutenant-General Lothar Nethling, an apartheid-era police chief. A separate client was Casper Greeff, convicted of killing his wife and another man. Accordingly, reporters describe Roux as a legal gun-for-hire, by no means pursuing law as a form of altruism. I think it would be naive to not consider the possibility that Roux was attempting to destroy Botha’s character by using the re-opened case as ammunition. Remember, he gets paid to do that.

barry roux

Defense Attorney Barry Roux

The police said they chose Botha, an officer for 24 years and detective for 16, in spite of the charges because of his experience. If they thought his past allegations affected his credibility then why assign the veteran detective to the most high-profile murder case in the world? I’m inclined to believe his credibility isn’t negligible. Especially considering that the allegations are from a completely unrelated case.

This is one hypothesis in regards to Botha’s suspension: the detective had accumulated a plethora of incriminating evidence against Pistorius in the week leading up to his bail hearing. This is validated by the fact that the judge agreed pre-meditation was an appropriate charge–there was obviously substantial evidence there. Roux, feeling threatened, dug up whatever dirt he could possibly find on Botha. What Roux found was that the NPA had reinstated a case against Botha on February 4th, and then had the DPP inform the police on February 20th. Why? Because regardless if there was a legitimate case against Botha or not, the media would find out somehow and subsequently blow it out of proportion (and that’s exactly what they did). In turn, whether or not Botha was credible became irrelevant. In the eyes of the public, he wasn’t. Police had no choice but to remove him from the investigation. Genius. This type of legal maneuvering is called “being a lawyer”.

Does this scenario sound familiar? It should. Flashback to the O.J. Simpson trial. During cross-examination, lead detective Mark Fuhrman, when asked by defense attorney F. Lee Bailey whether he had used the word “nigger,” said he hadn’t used the word in 10 years. The defense produced four witnesses to establish that Fuhrman had used the “n-word” more recently, as well as an audiotape contradicting his testimony. He was charged with perjury and his credibility was destroyed. As a result, Fuhrman is a convicted felon. He is the only person to have been convicted of criminal charges related to the Simpson case. As we all know, O.J. Simpson was acquitted of all charges.

oj

Obviously innocent.

While I can’t say with certainty that my hypothesis concerning Roux is the truth (even I’ll admit it’s a stretch) I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t far from it. I’m a realist. No amount of nefarious back-room politics would surprise me when it comes to lawyers.

Before offering the following analysis, I feel it’s necessary to inform you of everything upfront. Considering the early inconsistencies in this case are found within the contrasting accounts between Pistorius and Botha, Botha’s credibility is what all of the evidence relies on at this point. Personally, I still believe Detective Botha to be credible. Thus, I haven’t discounted his preliminary investigation. If you believe otherwise, well then, I’m sorry. That’s why it’s called an opinion. Go watch Nancy Grace, instead.

nancy grace

“Rabble-rabble-rabble! Casey Anthony! Rabble-rabble-rabble!”

ANALYSIS:

“I am acutely aware of violent crime being committed by intruders entering homes with a view to commit crime, including violent crime. I have received death threats before. I have also been a victim of violence and of burglaries before.

  • Oscar Pistorius’ estate is, literally, the safest neighborhood in the entire country of South Africa. The area consists of more than 1,600 plots built around an 18-hole golf course. Security measures include electrified fences and 24-hour armed guards. While it’s true that South Africa has some of the highest rates for violent crime in the world (avg. 50 murders/day) I don’t believe Pistorius is a likely victim of one of those crimes. Furthermore, playing the victim of crime while you live in a $5 million estate in the safest area of the country, appears to be a desperate plea to gain sympathy and/or humanize him.

During the early morning hours of February 14th, 2013, I woke up, went onto the balcony to bring the fan in and closed the sliding doors, the blinds and the curtains. I heard a noise in the bathroom and realised that someone was in the bathroom.

  • Pistorius wakes up in the middle of the night–he’s walking on his stumps–and for some reason he decides to get up out of bed, go out to the balcony, bring in the fan (without his legs?), close the sliding door, close the blinds and the curtains. ALL in the dark, mind you. As he would later say that it was so dark that he couldn’t tell whether or not Reeva was in bed. So why get up and do all of that in the pitch dark? Like most people, it’s become habitual that I close the garage and lock the doors in my house before going to bed every night. I’ve been doing that routine everyday for years (and I live in the suburbs). Point being, if Pistorius was “acutely aware of violent crime” and had also been a “victim of violence and burglaries” then why wouldn’t he shut the balcony door before going to bed? Why wouldn’t he shut the open window in the bathroom? (Which he later said made him apprehensive of an intruder because there were construction workers at his property earlier that day who left a ladder against the house). Given the fact that he was consciously aware of the construction workers, knew the ladder was still up, and was “acutely aware of violent crime” in his past, why didn’t he make sure his house was secure before going to bed? I think the circumstances surrounding him waking up in the middle of the night are odd, at best. If he felt it was so important to do this routine at 3 A.M., why wouldn’t he have done it before he went to bed that night? I also don’t believe that walking out on the balcony provided Reeva enough time to slip out of bed unnoticed by Pistorius, as the defense claims.

“I felt a sense of terror rushing over me… Although I did not have my prosthetic legs on I have mobility on my stumps.”

  • This statement is the defense’s equivalent of “having our cake and eating it too”. Basically they’re saying, Pistorius’ judgement was clouded by the fact that he was paralyzed by fear. However, it wasn’t paralyzing enough (no pun intended) to stop him from grabbing his gun and approaching the threat–without his legs and in the dark. If he felt a “sense of terror” and vulnerability then why didn’t he remain next to the bed in a defensive position? (Perhaps with his gun pointed toward the narrow hallway. Basic defensive instincts.) According to blueprints, the intruder would have had no choice but to emerge from the hallway into the bedroom, completely vulnerable to a surprise attack by Pistorius and his 9mm.

“I grabbed my 9mm pistol from underneath my bed. On my way to the bathroom I screamed words to the effect for him/them to get out of my house and for Reeva to phone the police. It was pitch dark in the bedroom and I thought Reeva was in bed.

  • Detective Botha testified that the holster to Pistorius’ 9mm was found on Reeva’s side of the bed. Barring the possibility that the detective’s entire investigation is bullshit, this is one of the most incriminating pieces of evidence in my opinion. It’s far-fetched to believe Reeva would not wake up if Oscar yelled in her ear while she slept right next to him. Additionally, if he was next to her, why didn’t he reach up onto the bed and see if she was there? I would estimate that 9 out of 10 people would check the bed in that situation. Especially if she was your extremely hot model girlfriend who you wanted to protect.  How could he possibly think Reeva was still in bed after she didn’t respond? Why didn’t he take simple measures to make sure whether or not she was there? 

“I noticed that the bathroom window was open. I realised that the intruder/s was/were in the toilet because the toilet door was closed and I did not see anyone in the bathroom. I heard movement inside the toilet. The toilet is inside the bathroom and has a separate door.

  • Again, coming back to the open window in the bathroom. Why was this suddenly unnerving? Pistorius said he woke up in the middle of the night to close the sliding door to his balcony. Which suggests it wasn’t out-of-the-ordinary to leave a door and/or window open in the house while they slept. Also, I reiterate another point by asking: why did he pursue? He had his gun, he had located the threat within the bathroom, and the intruder’s only way out was back through the bathroom window or down a narrow hallway. If anyone had tactical advantage in that moment, it was Pistorius with a 9mm pistol aiming down a hallway in darkness while standing half the height of an average man (if he had actually done that).

“As I did not have my prosthetic legs on and felt extremely vulnerable, I knew I had to protect Reeva and myself. I believed that when the intruder/s came out of the toilet we would be in grave danger.

  • This might sound insensitive but the fact that Pistorius is a paraplegic is basically the only leg he has to stand on–dammit! I got to stop doing that. Excuse the pun. What I mean is, the fact that he’s handicapped is the only reason that his story is plausible. If he was able-bodied, this story about mistaking his girlfriend for an intruder and firing four shots through the bathroom door, would be considered a complete farce. Pistorius and the defense are relying too much on his perceived “vulnerability”. Their persistence about this seems manipulative to me. If Pistorius had legs and/or wasn’t a celebrity, I seriously doubt he would be out on bail right now. The reality is, you don’t need legs to fire a weapon. Let alone, fire it four times. Insensitive? Yes. But a valid argument? I think so. Pistorius said, “I believed that when the intruder/s came out of the toilet we would be in grave danger.” Yet, he pursued. Pistorius–with limited mobility–made his way down the hallway toward the bathroom and the perceived intruder. If he felt “in grave danger” why was he acting like the aggressor? Keep in mind, Pistorius was the only one with a gun that night, whether he knew it or not. The intruder was entirely a misperception. Even if Pistorius was under duress, there was no actual threat to cause him to react the way he did. A “noise” is suspisious, not a threat.

I fired shots at the toilet door and shouted to Reeva to phone the police. She did not respond and I moved backwards out of the bathroom, keeping my eyes on the bathroom entrance. Everything was pitch dark in the bedroom and I was still too scared to switch on a light. Reeva was not responding.

  • “Everything was pitch dark in the bedroom…” So, I’ll assume the only light on in the master bedroom was the bathroom light (Why would Reeva be on the toilet in the dark?) In relation to that, you would have to be the most clueless burglar in the world to enter a bathroom window at 3 A.M. and turn the light on. “And I was still too scared to switch on a light.” Isn’t turning on the lights an inherent response to fear? Pistorius was too scared to gain more visibility? He claimed he already felt vulnerable. Why leave the lights off? Just as I believe that 9 out of 10 people would have checked if Reeva was in bed, I believe 9 out of 10 people would have also turned the lights on, immediately. His basic instinctual behavior repeatedly contradicted what someone would be expected to do in that same situation. Everything in his story seems too contrived. 

When I reached the bed, I realised that Reeva was not in bed. That is when it dawned on me that it could have been Reeva who was in the toilet.

  • So, now he decides to check the bed? After blindly firing four shots through the bathroom door? I don’t think Pistorius would make a good cop. He lacks a certain…what’s the word? Restraint. How does the possibility that your girlfriend is in the bathroom not cross your mind? And why, during this entire episode, does Reeva apparently never respond to Pistorius once? He said he was calling out to her at 3 A.M. and yet she doesn’t say a word?

Two witnesses have testified in this case. One witness claims to have heard a gunshot between 2 A.M. and 3 A.M., followed by more shots 17 minutes later. The other witness claims they heard one shot, followed by screams, and then more shots. The witness also alleged that the lights were on and that they heard a female screaming.

“We have a statement of a person who said after he heard gunshots, he went to the balcony and saw the light was on [at Pistorius’ estate]. Then he heard a female screaming 2-3 times then more gunshots.” -Detective Botha

Keep in mind, these witnesses testify under oath–facing the penalty of perjury charges. Why would they risk jail time by lying? What would they have to gain from that? The witness testimony completely contradicts Pistorius’ account, where he claims to have fired four consecutive shots through the bathroom door. Supporting this is the fact that Reeva was only hit by three bullets, not four. Additionally, she was only hit on the right side of her body. This suggests she might have had her body pressed up against the door or was hiding in a corner. Was she protecting herself from a perceived threat or a real one?

Detective Botha arrived on the scene an hour after the shooting. He originally testified that the trajectory of the bullets appeared to be “top to bottom”. Suggesting that Pistorius was indeed standing with his prosthetics on when he fired into the bathroom. All four bullet casings were recovered from the scene. One casing was found in the hallway and three were found in the bathroom. This is consistent with witness testimonies that claim one shot was heard followed by more shots.

Botha claimed that one of the bullet casings was found inside the toilet bowl. Ask yourself, how is that possible? If he was shooting through the door, how would a casing end up in the toilet? The only logical explanation I can think of is that he initially tried to hide the evidence, then stopped, perhaps realizing his mistake. If he was truly innocent and this was truly an accidental killing, why attempt to cover your tracks? It’s indicative of guilt. If it can be confirmed that four shots were fired through the door, then the fact that a bullet casing was found in the toilet is definitely incriminating. Additionally, Reeva’s cellphone was also recovered from the bathroom floor. Which raises another question: who brings their phone to the toilet at 3 A.M.? Why would you? Checking your Facebook status? Or was she calling for help?

Full disclosure: a formal ballistics report is not available at this time and Botha is not a ballistics expert.

In closing, I believe first and foremost, that Oscar Pistorius deserves his day in court. No matter what happened that night, due process is a guaranteed right. I have no personal distaste for Pistorius. I honestly knew little about him before this case. I know that to have accomplished what he has accomplished takes someone with a strong-will and determined character. I understand he’s an inspiration. I understand that it’s completely possible that what happened that night could have been an accident. But right now–given what we know–I don’t believe that. It goes without saying that the investigation is currently pending.

Oscar Pistorius is a world-class athlete and a national treasure in South Africa. But this seems to overshadow the fact that an innocent young woman had her life cut short under shady circumstances. My only motivation for writing this is to find the truth. If not for justice, at least for Reeva.

The important thing to remember is that everything I have presented is circumstantial: inferences acquired through deduction. It is the nature of circumstantial evidence for more than one explanation to be possible. I can’t say with certainty how right or wrong I am. However, I’m certain there is more to this case than meets the eye. At least there is more than what Pistorius alleges. What we need now is more concrete evidence: ballistics report, cell-phone records, autopsy, toxicology, blood spatter analysis, etc. There just isn’t enough information to make any conclusion with a sense of certainty. In the words of Sherlock Holmes:

“It is a mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

reeva

R.I.P.

Reeva Steenkamp 8/19/83-2/14/13